We are routinely asked by universities and business executives what we see coming next in crowdsourcing. As we watch the evolution of crowd-powered business, there are three models we see bubbling to the surface: core crowdsourcing companies crowdsourcing hubs attached to major enterprises and crowds for hire where organizations can post calls to pre-existing communities.

In what crowds do people most want to participate? In what crowdsourcing communities will the greatest value be derived? What are organizations most interested in crowdsourcing? Here are some thoughts on the opportunities and challenges ahead for each model:

1) Core Crowdsourcing companies – examples: iStockPhoto, Healogica, Threadless, NowPublic, Wikipedia, Kluster

Creative design, stock photography, drug or medical treatment trials – all are arenas where businesses are cropping up that call to the crowd. Crowd members perform tasks historically performed by hired staff vastly broadening the talent pool to perform the work. What will determine the future success or failure of these crowdsourcing-at-their-core companies? Perhaps it will be their ability to recruit and retain a qualified crowd, and keep them actively participating with frequent and interesting calls. Or will it be their ability to sustain revenue as it gets more expensive to reward crowd contribution as crowdsourcing competition increases and the novelty of hobbyists living out their dream job wears off?

2) Crowdsourcing hubs by existing companies – examples: Dell, Procter&Gamble, Intel, Starbucks, Sony etc.

The proven model of enterprise crowdsourcing works where a company already has rapid product development, global brand reach, and where current product testing/development, or brand development cannot scale further without scaling up costs. Open innovation calls to the public to contribute, replacing hiring as a means of profitable innovation and further expansion. So what may be the hurdles in this successful crowdsourcing method? Will it be legal issues around IP ownership? Will crowd members rally against enterprises claiming sole ownership on all ideas put forward or germinated within the crowdsourcing hub? Or will the crowd resist these single brand hubs in a demonstration of resistance against being agents “owned by enterprise” outside of employee crowdsourcing hubs where they are certain to participate in the upside? And what about competition for crowd members? Early adopters like Dell may soon face competition from newcomers to crowdsourcing such as Microsoft. How will one enterprise versus another win the showdown for the fickle, time-starved crowd?

3) Crowds for hire – examples: pre-existing communities like InnoCentive or ChallengePost, uTest, Mob4Hire

Given the considerable effort and time that it takes to recruit and maintain a crowd, crowds for hire hubs that invite multiple organizations to call to their members for problem solving, ideas or production may have noteworthy opportunity. The crowds for hire businesses do the heavy lifting of recruiting a crowd, but their clients do the work of keeping the calls/challenges interesting and pay the rewards. What may be the stumbling blocks of this model? Will it be nailing the pricing model to attract enough to deter mid-sized or even small companies from building their own crowdsourcing hubs, and convincing mega enterprises to post calls both with them and on their own brand dedicated crowdsourcing hubs (as Procter & Gamble does posting calls in both Connect + Develop and InnoCentive)? And who best to host these hubs? Will it be market research companies shifting away from traditional surveying to more powerful behavior prediction and data analysis possible with crowdsourcing? Or might it be brand referees such as PR and marketing agencies looking to go beyond crowd monitoring and call to the crowd for direction on products, brand positioning, and marketing creative? What kind of hubs will earn and sustain a time commitment by crowd members? Will it be hubs dedicated to niche passions like product or technology testing, music, cooking, beauty or television watching as iStockPhoto suggests? Or will it be by demographic such as a hub for retired people where they can input on consumer products, healthcare, assisted living homes and communities?

Which of these three models do you see winning?

Photo by: sherlock77